Golden Globes nominations and the Oscar field—first thoughts

The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning, and for those who like to use critics' groups awards, top ten lists and various industry awards as bellwethers of the Oscars, the early indications are, um, confusing?

Between the New York Film Critics Circle, the Broadcast Film Critics Association (nominations only so far), the Los Angeles Film Critics Association and the Hollywood Foreign Press (the Globe-hosting organization), we've got a few consensus candidates in acting categories: Sally Hawkins's performance in Happy-Go-Lucky got the nod from the LAFCA, NYFCC and noms from the BFCA and the Globers (they separate film noms in all the top categories into drama and comedy—her nod is in comedy). Sean Penn's work in Milk did the same, except of course his Globe nom is in drama. Penelope Cruz ditto for her work in Vicky Cristina Barcelona (in best comedy actress for Globes).

Supporting actor is turning out to be a tricky field. Heath Ledger’s last performance in The Dark Knight has gotten love from LAFCA, but NYFCC went for Josh Brolin. Both got BFCA noms, but Brolin was shut out by the Globes, whose division into comedy and drama doesn’t apply to supporting (don’t ask us, we just report the news). The Globes did continue the love for Ledger, if that means anything.

But Best Picture? As the Magic Eightball would say, ask again later. Before anyone had seen the films, early buzz was mentioning Revolutionary Road, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Frost/Nixon and Australia. Well, the only thing clear so far is that Australia is out. NYFCC went with Milk, LAFCA went with WALL-E, and BFCA nominated a whopping ten films, making their nominations meaningless. The Globe-trotters went with early conventional wisdom in their Best Dramatic Feature nods (their comedy nods are far less likely to make it to the Oscars Best Picture list). They went with The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, Revolutionary Road and Slumdog Millionaire. They snubbed Milk, and WALL-E is left in the animation ghetto.

What does that tell us? Hard to say for sure, since the Academy voters are not the same as the press in their taste. Still, the Globes noms may give fresh hope to several films (The Reader, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) that weren’t getting much love from critics and Oscars prognosticators.

If I had to bet now on the Oscar Best Picture nominations, I’d say Frost/Nixon, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Milk, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire. But don’t hold me to that. This season looks like a goofy one.